KER
How Effective are Automatic Stabilizers in Reducing Aggregate Volatility in Korea?
DongIk Kang (Korea Institute of Public Finance) and Jinhee Woo (Soongsil University)발행년도2022Vol.38No.1
초록
We quantified the contribution of automatic stabilizers on business cycle volatility using a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model, which is calibrated to match important features of the Korean economy. We find that reducing unemployment benefit expenditures by 0.2% of the GDP increases its volatility by 0.24%. Reducing social transfers by the same amount increases the volatility by 1.49%. Lowering the tax rates of income tax, corporate tax, and VAT have little effect on aggregate volatility. A flat income tax increases the volatility of GDP by 3.49%. Simultaneously reducing unemployment benefit expenditures, social transfer expenditures, income tax revenue, corporate tax revenue, and VAT revenue each by 0.2% of the GDP increases the business cycle volatility by 1.56%. In the case of Korea, the stabilization effect of automatic stabilizers seems to be small.