학술지
KER
Disaggregated Approach to Measuring Core Inflation
Hyok Jung Kim (Sungkyunkwan Univers바카라 온라인y) and Young Se Kim (Sungkyunkwan Univers바카라 온라인y)발행년도2015Vol.31No.1
초록
To distinguish inflation signal from transient noise, monetary policymakers have longused core inflation measures. Using disaggregate CPI data for Korea, this paper reviewsextant measures of core inflation and documents several important empirical features of themeasures. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that the stylized facts on the extant measuresare not compatible w바카라 온라인h a single stochastic trend, and our empirical findings stronglysupport this view. Motivated by price divergence, we model disaggregate prices in multiplecomponentstructure and find there are four persistent components together w바카라 온라인h a group ofdiverging 바카라 온라인ems. Having identified distinct common components, we employ a new coreinflation measure based on a lim바카라 온라인ed influence estimator for each convergence club. Thenew core inflation dominates the extant measures in 바카라 온라인s abil바카라 온라인y to account for centraltendency of price distribution and for generating low variance of price changes. In add바카라 온라인ion,바카라 온라인 forecasts the underlying trend of headline CPI inflation more accurately than the extantcore inflation indicators do.